From the desk of Vance Howard:
The HCM-BuyLine® is positive, and pullbacks are buyable.
We have heard a lot about capitulation to the downside, which means a big sell-off day sitting in the bottom of a bear market. In my opinion, there have already been a number of big sell-off days in the last 15 months of this bear market that could be viewed that way. But could the market capitulate to the upside, where we have several big up days where the bears and the shorts throw in the towel? We think this is happening now. The bears may be trapped as the S&P 500 has posted two consecutive quarterly gains. This has never happened in a bear market, at least since 1950. So, how long will the bears stay bearish?
It looks like the Fed has backed themselves into a corner by raising rates as fast and as far as they have. The question for the Fed is, do they break the economy or inflation, but they are going to break one of the two for sure. Or have they now come out from underneath the ether and become aware that breaking the whole economy, along with banks going under, might not be very smart.
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