It’s The Fed vs. Your Wallet In This New Market Reality

It’s The Fed vs. Your Wallet In This New Market Reality

March 23, 2023

From the desk of Vance Howard:

We live in a different world than we did just 24 hours ago. Are you stuck trying to analyze if it’s better or worse?

Between Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Powell, I’m not sure if they could be more confusing and disorganized, which I find to be very disturbing. But unfortunately, that is what we are stuck with. Fed Chair Powell raised rates yesterday with the comment that there might be one more rate increase. After coming close to really destabilizing the banking system and our economy, he finally realized that they are killing everything just to kill inflation, which might be a touch unwise.

The HCM-BuyLine® held up even after some real shockwaves over the last few weeks. We did have excess cash and have been adding to positions. We have no idea if another bank will implode, and clearly neither does anyone else. There are 400 PhDs that work for the Federal Reserve, not just regular employees, but 400 PhDs. You would think that with the invention of the telephone, which Alexander Graham Bell invented in 1875, one of these brilliant PhDs at the Federal Reserve would use it to call the CEOs and Presidents of the regional banks and have a conversation about how raising rates at warp speed was affecting them.

The markets are trading a bit better today after a violent session yesterday. One reason is that the Fed has probably pushed us into a near-term recession. If so, they will be forced to reduce rates, which is why you are seeing bonds rally and the market rally in general.

There are several positive technical moves that we are encouraged by, with some areas being close to a breakout, such as the NASDAQ and technology stocks. The QQQs, which is tech-heavy, are trying to break out of a nice pivot point. AGG, the ETF of the aggregate bond index, is trading much better as bonds have been rallying in the last two days. I’m actually very positive and constructive on the markets after the HCM-BuyLine® held up as well as it did, but the one outlier is the decisions being made by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, which could either help or hurt us all.

Vance Howard

This communication is issued by Howard Capital Management, Inc. It is for informational purposes and is not an official confirmation of terms. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor is it a complete statement of the financial products or markets referred to. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Howard Capital Management, Inc. may maintain long or short positions in the financial instruments referred to and may transact in them as principal or agent. Unless stated specifically otherwise, this is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell and any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only. To the extent permitted by law, Howard Capital Management, Inc. does not accept any liability arising from the use of this communication. Howard Capital Management is an SEC-registered investment advisor which only does business where it is properly registered or is otherwise exempt from registration. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.HCM-022223-WW05 (02/2023)

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