Stocks Rally After Strong Jobs Report

October 09, 2023

A Friday rally overcame a shaky week, sending stocks mostly higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.30% for the week. Meanwhile, the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 0.48%, and the Nasdaq Composite index added 1.60% for the five trading days. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 2.37%.^1,2,3

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Friday Rally

Stocks rallied on Friday after a stronger employment report than Wall Street expected. The headline increase in September payrolls initially generated fears of further Fed rate hikes, leading to a spike in bond yields and steep early morning losses. A yield retreat may have triggered the turnaround as investors focused more on the month’s moderate wage growth.

Stocks were shaky for much of last week on rising bond yields. When Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2007 on Tuesday, stock prices dropped, leaving the Dow Industrials in negative territory for the year. The catalyst for the day’s spike in interest rates was a surprisingly strong JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) showing nearly one million more open jobs than investors had expected.⁴

All About Jobs

The labor market remains resilient. August JOLTS showed job openings exceeded 9.6 million, above the consensus estimate of 8.8 million. A weak Automated Data Processing (ADP) private payroll job growth (released Wednesday) that showed 89,000 new private sector jobs appeared to be an outlier compared to the other reports.^5,6

Friday’s monthly employment report showed a robust gain of 336,000 new jobs, nearly double the consensus forecast of 170,000. At the same time, the previous two months saw significant upward revisions of 119,000 (combined) from initial reports. Wage gains rose modestly, coming in below expectations and striking a hopeful note on inflation.⁷

This Week: Key Economic Data

Wednesday: Producer Price Index (PPI). Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.

Thursday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Jobless Claims.

Friday: Consumer Sentiment.

_{^{Source: Econoday, October 6, 2023
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Thursday: Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)

Friday: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH), Citigroup, Inc. (C), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC), BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)

_{^{Source: Zacks, October 6, 2023
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}}

When Was the Last Time You Checked Your Withholding Status?

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has a handy tool called the Tax Withholding Estimator, which can help you manage having too much or too little tax withheld from your wages.

The tool can also help you determine if you must complete a new W-4 to submit to your employer, complete a new W-4P, or make additional payments to the IRS. It does this by estimating your annual income, how many children you claim for the Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit, and other items that may affect your yearly taxes.

Before using the Tax Withholding Estimator, gather all necessary documents; this includes your W-2 from your employer, any 1099 forms you have from banks and other payers, and any other forms you need. Gathering as much information as possible will help because the estimator will only be as accurate as the information you enter.⁸

_{*This information is not intended to substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.}

Strength Training Strategies for Every Level

If you want to build muscle mass, sometimes the best strategies are the simplest ones. For example, getting great at the "big four" exercises can help you build a strong (literally) foundation. These four moves are the squat, deadlift, bench, and shoulder press. You can work some of your body's major muscle groups with simple movements.

Another strategy is to stick with dumbbells and barbells mainly. Sure, all the fancy machines in the gym look fun and enticing, but mastering foundational movements with free weights is a skill in itself. Free weight and bodyweight training are some of the most effective exercises, and they’re also the simplest.

Lastly, maintain a log and track your progress. Doing one more rep or lifting five more pounds counts as progress. These achievements will keep you motivated and make tracking your progress easier as you get stronger.⁹

Orange Glazed Cranberry Bread

Servings: 1 Loaf

PREP TIME: 20 mins | COOK TIME: 55 mins | TOTAL TIME: 2 hours

This is moist and tender orange cranberry bread with buttery streusel and a zingy orange glaze.

Streusel Ingredients:

1/4 cup (31g) all-purpose flour (spooned & leveled)
2 Tablespoons (30g) granulated sugar
1/2 teaspoon ground cinnamon
3 Tablespoons (43g) unsalted butter, cold and cubed

Bread:

1/4 cup (31g) all-purpose flour (spooned & leveled)
2 Tablespoons (30g) granulated sugar
2 cups (250g) all-purpose flour (spooned & leveled)
1 teaspoon baking soda
1/2 teaspoon salt
1 large egg, at room temperature
1/2 cup (105g) packed light or dark brown sugar
1/2 cup (100g) granulated sugar
1 cup (240ml) buttermilk, at room temperature*
1/3 cup (80ml) vegetable oil (or melted coconut oil)
1 teaspoon pure vanilla extract
2 teaspoons orange zest
1 cup (110g) cranberries, fresh or frozen (do not thaw)*
optional: 1/2 cup (65g) chopped pecans or chopped walnuts

Glaze Ingredients:

1 cup (120g) confectioners’ sugar
1–2 Tablespoons orange juice

Instructions:

Preheat oven to 350°F (177°C). Spray a 9×5-inch loaf pan with nonstick spray.
Make the streusel first: Whisk the flour, sugar, and cinnamon together in a medium bowl. Cut in the cold butter with a pastry cutter, your hands, or two forks until mixture resembles pea-size crumbs. It’s important to keep the streusel cold, so place in the refrigerator (covered or uncovered) until ready to use in step 4.
Make the bread: Whisk the flour, baking soda, and salt together in a large bowl. In a medium bowl, whisk the egg, brown sugar, and granulated sugar together until combined. Whisk in the buttermilk, oil, vanilla, and orange zest. Pour the wet ingredients into the dry ingredients, then whisk to completely combine. Avoid over-mixing. Fold in the cranberries and nuts (if using).
Pour the batter into prepared loaf pan. Top evenly streusel, pressing the streusel down gently into the top of the bread so it sticks.
Bake the bread for 45 minutes to 1 hour. Cover loosely with foil about halfway through to ensure even browning. Poke the center of the bread with a toothpick. If it comes out clean, the bread is done. Oven times will vary between ovens. My bread usually takes 1 hour. Cool bread completely in the pan set on a wire rack.
Make the glaze: In a small bowl, whisk the confectioners’ sugar and orange juice together. Add more orange juice depending how thick you want the glaze. Drizzle over cooled bread.
Slice and serve. Cover and store leftover bread at room temperature for 1 day or in the refrigerator for up to 1 week.

Footnotes and Sources

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, October 6, 2023}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, October 6, 2023}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, October 6, 2023}

^{4. CNBC, October 3, 2023}

^{5. CNBC, October 3, 2023}

^{6. CNBC, October 4, 2023}

^{7. CNBC, October 6, 2023}

^{8. IRS.gov, April 13, 2023}

^{9. Outlift.com, July 28, 2023}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}