From the desk of Vance Howard:
My, my, my, how fast things change in today’s markets. The HCM-BuyLine® has firmed up substantially – still no buy signal yet but it is looking a lot better. With that said, the market is now overbought and will pull back in the next few days, or a week from now. That is not a bad thing because if we get a new signal and a technical pullback does occur, it will give us some “pennies from heaven” to buy at even lower prices. Again, we do not have a confirmed buy signal yet, but optimism is starting to build. In the Wealth Watch last week, I wrote about how the low of February could have been the low for the year, but only time will tell. Don’t try to get out there too fast. Remember what happened to General George Custer? He ran out too fast and ended up with a bunch of arrows in him.
The bond market is getting beaten up as the TLT 20-year treasuries are now down about -12% YTD. YIKES! This is this first bear market in bonds in over 30 years, and it looks like the pain is only just beginning. As a side note, we are hardly holding any bonds other than 1-3-month T-bill which is just a notch above cash. I have not been a fan of target date funds, and this is the reason why. They are going to have a very hard road ahead for the foreseeable future.
If the Semiconductor index (SOXX) holds today it will be back above its 200-day MA which is a positive sign for that sector.
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