Wealth Watch: Caution Advised! Trader’s Rally Might be Temporary

May 24, 2022

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From the desk of Vance Howard:

The markets are deeply oversold and due for a nice trader’s rally. I would suspect a solid 10% move up, possibly up to around 4500 on the S&P 500 over the near-term. Be very careful because this could just be a TRADER’S RALLY. Stay nimble and set very tight stops.

We are not calling a bottom, but this selloff has created some amazing buys, and we think they could get even better. The HCM-BuyLine® is negative and until it changes, we will sit on the cash we have built up and let the HCM-BuyLine® tell us when to re-enter the market.

Some stocks we are looking at when the trend changes back to an uptrend are companies like Salesforce (CRM), Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Microdevices (AMD), and the list goes on and on.

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The S&P 500 roared into the close Friday, closing positive on the day at 3,901.36. The VIX closed at $29.43. The S&P 500 has still fallen seven weeks in a row, its longest losing streak since 2001. It recovered from its plunge into bear territory, but it’s still down 18% this year. 2022 is a midterm year, which typically experience a 17.1% average drawdown from peak to trough. When considering market cycles, this midterm year isn’t much of an anomaly.

Vance Howard

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