From the desk of Vance Howard:
Vance Howard Rings the NYSE Closing Bell November 2021
I have been doing this job of managing money just about my whole life and have loved nearly every minute of it. But as I get older and wiser, I do start to see things a lot more clearly. I had a younger member of our team ask me the other day “How do you seem so calm when the markets are falling part? It doesn’t seem to bother you at all.” I thought about that, and I realized that there are some advantages to getting older (even though I hate aging, it is better than the alternative), and two of those are experience and wisdom. The markets misbehaving makes me agitated, but not concerned. Why? Because I know the odds. We can’t guarantee anything in this business, so I will give odds from here forward. The odds of this market basing and moving higher are 99.9%, and the odds the indexes will make a new all-time are 99.9%. The only question is when.
The HCM-BuyLine® has been one of the most productive indicators I think has ever been built. It will not call a top or bottom, but it gives a very good picture of when to reduce exposure and when to start buying again. We are sitting on about $480 million of cash in Tactical, $300 million in Dividend, and about $390 million cash and one-month T-bills in Income plus, and that does not include all the cash on the SMA side. So, all said and done we have about 30-35% in cash at HCM. We are still getting slung around the room like everyone else, but we have a huge amount of buying power when the markets turn around. We probably have one of the highest levels of cash in the industry compared to other firms such as Fidelity, BlackRock, and Vanguard. Odds are that those firms are most likely fully invested and will not be able to capture the bargains that the markets are creating at this very moment. When the market turns back up, we should be able to take advantage.
This communication is issued by Howard Capital Management, Inc. It is for informational purposes and is not an official confirmation of terms. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor is it a complete statement of the financial products or markets referred to. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Howard Capital Management, Inc. may maintain long or short positions in the financial instruments referred to and may transact in them as principal or agent. Unless stated specifically otherwise, this is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell and any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only. To the extent permitted by law, Howard Capital Management, Inc. does not accept any liability arising from the use of this communication. Howard Capital Management is an SEC-registered investment advisor which only does business where it is properly registered or is otherwise exempt from registration. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.HCM-011222.01