From the desk of Vance Howard:
HO! HO! HO! The Santa Claus rally appears to have started Monday with a very strong move to the upside. Tuesday pulled back just a little bit, which should be expected with Monday’s big day to the upside. Three more trading days and we should be able to lock in a big year for HCM and those we trade for. The market has traded just about spot on as we have been predicting with the Covid news constantly being talked about, discussed, and never-ending on the news media. But we must trade the market we have, not the one we wish we had. With that said, if the next three days hold up, it will be another big year for all of us.
I have constantly been asked what I think the market will do in 2022. Let me answer by saying no matter what I think, we will be trading our system. Math, not emotions. But here’s my take on next year. The market will see additional volatility, probably for the first half of the year. A 10% correction should be expected and, in all probability, the HCM-BuyLine® will hold, and it will be a buying opportunity. We think the market in 2022 could produce gains in excess of 10% on the S&P 500.
Mid-term elections are next year and having a down market has a bad effect on incumbent politicians getting reelected. They will not want that going into the midterms. The Fed will raise rates 3 times, but we do not see them raising a 4th time, so stocks will be a much better investment than bonds in 2022. Inflation will be persistent, but remember, markets can and have moved much higher in an inflationary environment. There is still a tremendous amount of cash on the sidelines that is yet to be invested. We think Covid will start to roll over in the first quarter of 2022 which will be good for the markets in Q3 and Q4.
I hope everyone has a great week and a happy new year!!
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This newsletter is a publication of Howard Capital Management, Inc. It should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed nor should the newsletter be construed as personalized investment advice. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. It should not be viewed as legal or tax advice. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation.
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Howard Capital Management, Inc. (“HCM”), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this commentary serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from HCM. Please remember to contact your primary investment professional, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising HCM’s investment management services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment management services. HCM is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the commentary content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the HCM’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available upon request.
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McCarthy Financial Group's Blog: Market Insights & Wealth Watch