Wealth Watch: HCM-BUYLINE® Regains Strength After a Volatile Autumn

Wealth Watch: HCM-BUYLINE® Regains Strength After a Volatile Autumn

November 04, 2021

From the desk of Vance Howard:

The markets are melting up as they say. They are overbought at this point, but again, any pullback should be bought. The HCM-BuyLine® has moved back into a very strong position. Like I have been saying for two months, September and October are historically very volatile, and that has proven to be the case, but we see the last two months of the year being strong.


Semiconductors are starting to break out to new highs. We are very long this sector and see this as being a solid move upward into year-end and possibly into 2022. 


FOMC decision, tapering will not be a killer of the "Year-end everything rally".

Fed Chair Powell made several dovish statements after the announcement with saying the “Fed can be patient with rate hikes” and “inflation may wind down by Q2 or Q3 of 2022” and “no evidence of wage-rise spiral”.  The overall Fed statement came in as expected but did add the statement that inflation is expected to be transitory, which possibly shows some doubts and that the Fed can slow or stop tapering if deemed necessary.  On top of this today, for the first time in 5 years the US Treasury announced its first reduction in the quarterly sale of long-term debt as the necessity for borrowing is dwindling compared to where it was at during the pandemic. 

The ISM Services PMI jumped 4.8 points in October, the most in seven months, to 66.7, a record high, and above the consensus of 62.0. It suggests a significant acceleration in services activity growth after a temporary lull in Q3 that was instigated by the surge in the Delta wave. All 18 industries in the ISM survey expanded. The level of the PMI and industry breadth are both consistent with above-trend growth.

Most individual ISM activity indexes increased last month. Business activity and new orders picked up by the most since March and expanded at record rates, indicating a surge in demand. Export order growth accelerated, and imports rebounded, also indicating stronger demand. But employment growth moderated, with firms noting significant staffing and labor turnover challenges. Once again, labor was reported in short supply and up in price, reflecting tightening labor market conditions. Firms also continued to deal with supply chain problems and slow deliveries. The delivery delays were the second worst on record. This led to backlogs accumulating at a record pace, while inventories shrank at the second quickest rate since March 2009. Inventory sentiment swung back down to a record low.


Vance Howard

Copyright © 2021, All rights reserved.

Our mailing address is:

Howard Capital Management Inc.
1145 Hembree Rd
Roswell, GA 30076

This newsletter is a publication of Howard Capital Management, Inc. It should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed nor should the newsletter be construed as personalized investment advice. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. It should not be viewed as legal or tax advice. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Howard Capital Management, Inc. (“HCM”), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this commentary serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from HCM. Please remember to contact your primary investment professional, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising HCM’s investment management services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment management services. HCM is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the commentary content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the HCM’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available upon request.

© 2021 Howard Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved. Intended for receipt only and not for further distribution without the consent of Howard Capital Management, Inc.

McCarthy Financial Group's Blog: Market Insights & Wealth Watch

Schedule Appointment