From the desk of Vance Howard:
The HCM-BuyLine® is still positive, but it has weakened, and we are monitoring it closely. The markets have sold off to the point that they are now oversold, and we expect them to be sloppy and volatile for a few more weeks. Tuesday’s relief rally looks like the markets are trying to find a bottom. There are a lot of stocks that have been in correction mode, but the indexes have held up reasonably well. Corrections are normal and should be expected, so no real surprise that we are experiencing a correction, especially with all the shenanigans happening in Washington.
Monday’s SPX drop back below Sept '20 lows to kick off the week should allow for a bit more weakness in the days ahead; yet technically this decline likely is buyable mid-to-late week.
There remain the same litany of issues that have damaged market confidence:
- COVID-19 delta surge
- Concerns about "peak everything"
- Are these supply chain glitches or is this massive inflation?
- Interest rates are rising, which many see as a negative (we really don't)
- Fed is tapering
- S&P 500 has been acting poorly since July
- S&P 500 suffered technical damage
- S&P 500 has risen so much in the last 18 months, it is far above its 200D
- October tends to be a bad month for stocks
- Washington turmoil on debt ceiling
- Fed Chair nomination in peril given trading revelations of Fed governors
- Earnings season might show cost pressures
And the list goes on...
The most recent range for the S&P 500 (SPY) is created from the first ten trading days of July, giving us a high of $437.92 and a low of $427.52. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has a high of 365.49 and a low of 352.68. With that said, both major indices are holding within the range, showing that we are in a neutral zone.
With a looming debt ceiling on October 18th, we should keep these levels in mind as the market holds its breath on a timely agreement. On the other hand, while the market is worried about a government shutdown, it could easily take a higher note if the debt ceiling is quickly raised.
Copyright © 2021, All rights reserved.
Our mailing address is:
Howard Capital Management Inc.
1145 Hembree Rd
Roswell, GA 30076
This newsletter is a publication of Howard Capital Management, Inc. It should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed nor should the newsletter be construed as personalized investment advice. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. It should not be viewed as legal or tax advice. Always consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation.
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Howard Capital Management, Inc. (“HCM”), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this commentary serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from HCM. Please remember to contact your primary investment professional, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising HCM’s investment management services, or if you would like to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment management services. HCM is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the commentary content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the HCM’s current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available upon request.
© 2021 Howard Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved. Intended for receipt only and not for further distribution without the consent of Howard Capital Management, Inc.
McCarthy Financial Group's Blog: Market Insights & Wealth Watch