Fed Says Tapering Ahead

November 8, 2021

A Federal Reserve announcement on tapering, a fresh batch of corporate profits, and encouraging economic data lifted stocks to another weekly gain.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.42%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 advanced 2.00%. The Nasdaq Composite index led, tacking on 3.05%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, added 1.58%.^1,2,3

Stocks Power Higher

Stocks marched higher throughout the week, lifted by a succession of positive corporate earnings surprises, optimistic forward guidance by some companies, and healthy economic data. Continued strong third-quarter profits reinforced the narrative that businesses were able to meet strong consumer demand and maintain robust profit margins, despite the headwinds of inflation and supply-chain knots.

Investors were unfazed by the Fed’s mid-week announcement that it would begin its bond purchase tapering plans, in part, because it had long been telegraphed and Fed Chair Powell’s optimistic analysis of the current state of the economy. Also cheered was the announcement of a new COVID-19 antiviral pill and a powerful rebound in job creation, driving stocks to new heights to close out the week.

The Fed Speaks

In an eagerly awaited November meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), the Fed pulled the trigger on its plan to taper monthly bond purchases. Fed tapering will begin this month with reductions of $15 billion per month ($10 billion in Treasurys and $5 billion in mortgage-backed securities) that will end this pandemic-era policy response by July 2022.⁴

The Fed reiterated its belief that inflation remained transitory, though conceding it had underestimated its acceleration and persistence; it did not expect interest rates to be raised until after the completion of the tapering program. Powell expects inflation to stay elevated until mid-2022 when he anticipates supply-chain bottlenecks to clear.^5,6

This Week: Key Economic Data

Wednesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Jobless Claims.

Friday: Consumer Sentiment. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

^{Source: Econoday, November 5, 2021
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Monday: PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL).

Tuesday: D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI), Sysco Corporation (SYY), Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR), DoorDash, Inc. (DASH), Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN), Roblox Corporation (RBLX).

Wednesday: The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM).

Friday: AstraZeneca PLC (AZN).

^{Source: Zacks, November 5, 2021
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

HCM-BUYLINE® REGAINS STRENGTH AFTER A VOLATILE AUTUMN

The markets are melting up as they say. They are overbought at this point, but again, any pullback should be bought. The HCM-BuyLine® has moved back into a very strong position. Like I have been saying for two months, September and October are historically very...[READ MORE]

^{This communication is issued by Howard Capital Management, Inc. It is for informational purposes and is not an official confirmation of terms. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor is it a complete statement of the financial products or markets referred to. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.} 

Check Your Withholding Status Online

The Withholding Calculator can help you determine whether you should submit a new W-4 to your employer, and you also can use the results to adjust your income tax withholding. If you have a more complex tax situation, you may need to use Publication 505, Tax Withholding and Estimated Tax form. This form can help you determine your self-employment tax, alternative minimum tax, or tax on unearned income by dependents. Publication 505 also can help if you receive non-wage income, including capital gains, royalties, dividends, and more.

It’s important to check your withholding to ensure that you’re deducting the right amount of taxes, and these handy tools can help.⁷

_{* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.}

Low-Impact Exercises for Healthy Joints

Here are some of our favorite low-impact exercises:

• Swimming – Not only is swimming a low-impact exercise, but it’s also a full body workout. Hop in the pool and do some laps or just splash around for fun. Either way, it’s great for exercising and staying cool.
  
  
• Kickboxing – It sounds intense, but kickboxing is actually a low-impact exercise that’s easy on your joints. If possible, modify your workout to focus more on the sport’s cardio movements and not the combat aspect.
  
  
• TRX Exercises – The TRX strap is what you often see hanging from a bar at the gym. This simple accessory makes it easy to do lunges, pullups, pushups, and squats without putting pressure on your joints.
  
  
• Cycling – Cycling, either indoors or outdoors, is a great exercise and easy on your knees.⁸

Caramel Apple Spice Thumbprints

Servings: 24 cookies

Time: 2 hours, 50 minutes

Ingredients (Topping)

• 1/3 cup (67g) granulated sugar
• 1/2 teaspoon apple pie spice

Ingredients (Dough)

• 2 and 1/2 cups (313g) all-purpose flour (spoon & leveled)
• 1 and 1/2 teaspoons apple pie spice
• 1 teaspoon baking powder
• 1/4 teaspoon salt
• 1 cup (230g) unsalted butter, softened to room temperature
• 3/4 cup (150g) granulated sugar
• 1 large egg, at room temperature
• 1 and 1/2 teaspoons pure vanilla extract
• homemade salted caramel

Directions

1. Mix the topping ingredients together in a small bowl. Set aside.
2. Whisk the flour, apple pie spice, baking powder, and salt together in medium bowl. Set aside.
3. In a large bowl using a handheld or stand mixer fitted with a paddle attachment, beat the butter and sugar together on medium-high speed until smooth and creamy, about 2 minutes. Add the egg and vanilla extract, and beat on high speed until combined, about 1 minute. Scrape down the sides and up the bottom of the bowl and beat again as needed to combine. Add the dry ingredients to the wet ingredients and mix on low until combined.
4. Roll balls of dough, a little less than 1 Tablespoon each (about 1 inch balls), and then roll generously into apple pie spice/sugar mixture to coat. Place dough balls onto a large lined baking sheet. Using your thumb or the end of a spatula (see post above), make an indent into each cookie. If you find that the balls are cracking when you make an indent, use your hands to push back together.
5. Chill the shaped cookies for at least 2-3 hours and up to 4 days. Cover them if chilling for longer than 3 hours.
6. Preheat oven to 350°F (180°C). Line a baking sheet with parchment paper or a silicone baking mat. Remove chilled and shaped cookies from the refrigerator. Divide between both baking sheets, spacing the cookies about 2-3 inches apart.
7. Bake for 12 minutes, remove from the oven, and spoon 1/2 teaspoon of caramel into each indentation. If the indents have lost their shape or have puffed up, use the end of a spatula to make an indent again. Place cookies back in the oven for 1-2 more minutes.
8. Allow cookies to cool on the baking sheets for 5 minutes, then transfer to a wire rack to cool completely. Caramel will set after a couple hours. ¹⁰

Stay safe!

Footnotes and Sources

 
^{1. The Wall Street Journal, November 5, 2021}

^{2. The Wall Street Journal, November 5, 2021}

^{3. The Wall Street Journal, November 5, 2021}

^{4. CNBC, November 3, 2021}

^{5. CNBC, November 3, 2021}

^{6. CNBC, November 3, 2021}

^{7. IRS.gov, January 22, 2021}

^{8. healthline.com, June 24, 2021}

^{9. Howardcm.com, November 04 , 2021}

^{10. sallysbakingaddiction.com,, September 11, 2017}

^{Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.}

^{The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.}

^{This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}

^{Copyright 2021 FMG Suite.}

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